“You’re at the mercy of the fates”

I’m a big fan of Moneyball, the excellent book by Michael Lewis. One of the big factors or stimulus’ of the book deals with Bill James. Bill is a founding member of Sabermetrics.

I’m also a big fan of Freakanomics, by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner. In many ways the two books are linked together in that they use or decipher data to uncover why certain patterns are they way they are. Or more importantly, how can I use logic and statistical fact to base my opinion on X.

Anyway, just yesterday two of my favorite worlds collided and that’s a good thing!

Bill James who was featured in Moneyball took questions from the Freakanomics blog. It’s a very interesting read, so I highly encourage you to check it out HERE.

One of the questions dealt with one of my favorite subjects. Why are the Cubs efforts so futile? Heck, I know apathy when I see it, but I wonder what the guru Bill James has to say about it. Here’s his answer.

Q: Why can’t the Chicago Cubs get into the World Series? Is it the small park? Low salaries? The curse of the billy goat? Does sabermetrics provide any insights?

A: Talking about the origins of it — the Cubs fell into a trench in history in the late 1930’s, when almost all baseball teams built farm systems, but the Cubs for several years refused to do so. This put them behind the curve, crippled them for the 1950’s, and really the organization did not fully overcome that until about 1980.

Since 1980 they have had several teams that could have wandered into a World Series, with better luck. They haven’t had any one overpowering team — like the 1984 Tigers, or the 1992 Blue Jays, or the 1998 Yankees — that was so good that it demanded a seat at the Last Banquet of Fall. And, unless you have a team that good, you’re at the mercy of the fates.

It’s an interesting answer, but the part I like the best is his last sentence. “And, unless you have a team that good, you’re at the mercy of the fates.” There are many definitions for fate but one of them deals with death. In other words, as Merriman-Webster puts it; an inevitable and often adverse outcome, condition, or end.

Perhaps the Cubs as we know them are just doomed?

Via Freakanomics